Monday, July 18, 2011

Will he stay or will he go?

Well as a keen Man City fan, I have been reading with interest over the last few weeks about the Tevez saga and whether he's leaving or not. It now looks like a foregone conclusion that he is heading back to Corinthians and I just wish they had let him go sooner as the last thing any team needs is player whose heart isn't in it. Let him leave and start focussing on the players that are there and the new season.

What will be interesting though will be to see if the odds on City to win the title start to go out as a result of him leaving. They are currently 3rd favourites and priced at 5.2 but they were as low as 4.9. I have no doubt that him leaving will impact the team adversely, when he didn't play last year, the team didn't look as dangerous and he scored a third of City's league goals last year.

However, I was surprised when I looked at the stats in more detail as actually City didn't really miss him that much when he didn't play - in the 2 seasons he has played for City the team has won 52% of the matches he has played in and 50% of the matches they have played without him. Also, the team only scores 0.06 less goals per game without him in the team.

So I predict, that City will cope without Tevez fine next year although City's price to win the title will drift a bit over the next few weeks when they secure Aguerro and he starts banging in the goals, their price will start to come in again.....or is that just wishful thinking??

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