Wednesday, June 29, 2011

Trading Tennis Matches with Hot Favourites

When we look at the Men's Quarter Finals today, all 4 matches have the favourite priced at under 1.2 and in the case of Murray as low as 1.11. What is interesting is that the starting odds on 'The Big Four' don't seem to rise at all as the tournament progresses, if they have risen it would only be by a couple of ticks. The player whose price has risen in this round is Nadal but that is mainly due to a slight doubt over his fitness after his ankle problem in the last round.

So are the Big 4 just as likely to win in the Quarter Finals as they are in Round 1? Well I guess you could argue thats what makes them the Top 4 players in the world; they raise their games as tournaments come into the business end but the flip side of that is the players they are playing against must be in great form to get to the quarters so surely they will provide stiffer opposition than their opponents in the early rounds. Its a difficult one though because you will often hear commentators say that if a player like Federer is going to be beaten its more likely to be in the early rounds when potentially he's not quite as focussed.

Another observation is that media frenzy seems to impact prices, the player out of the Big 4 whose price is shortest is Murray. Surely logic says that he shouldn't be priced shorter than Djokovic who has only lost one match this year and is playing a player ranked 158 in the world or indeed shorter than Federer, a serial winner of Wimbledon!

So this is an opportunity for the canny tennis trader and the question people should really be asking themselves is whether Lopez will mount a decent challenge today because if he does then Murray's price will drift giving traders an opportunity to guarantee profits regardless of who wins. We are not suggesting that Murray won't win as we think he will but what are the chances of Lopez taking the first set to a tie break or having a break point in the first set to go a break ahead or indeed winning the first or second set? Is one of these scenarios more likely than a straight sets victory for Murray with no period in the match when Lopez gets on top or even threatens to get on top. We would suggest that given Murray's propensity for drama, this match will have a few twists or turns.

As tennis traders, we are always out before a match finishes and often we are finished trading a match after the first few games. So, whilst its good to have an idea of who will eventually win the match, its also important to think which direction the odds are likely to move during the early part of the match and the downside if it doesn't go as predicted, as this is the period that traders make their money in.

Click here to see how one of our Members following our daily trading advice managed a 17% return in the first 3 games of Kvitova match yesterday, this profit was locked in regardless of the match outcome. 

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