Wimbledon Trading Review

Back Murray to Win!!!

Yes its that time of the year again when the whole nation goes tennis mad, the debri is cleared from the public tennis courts and every man and his dog wants to play. Murray (or his predecessor, Henman) normally gets us all excited and makes it as far as the semis and then gets trounced by a superior opponent and then its all over for another 12 months.

There is no doubt that Wimbledon holds a special place in the British public's hearts and it is still the tournament that most pros would love to win more than any other so what can we expect over the next 2 weeks? Well there is probably only 2 certainties: there will be frequent rain delays and the men's semis will contain at least two of Federer, Nadal, Djokovic and Murray.

I actually think that Wimbledon is Murray's best chance of winning a major as his 1st serve is probably a better weapon than Nadal and Djokovic's and his second serve is vastly improved but this is the stroke that will determine his success or failure. There are loads of players that have an amazing first serve and win the vast majority of points on their first serve - Karlovic, Anderson, Isner - to name a few but the best players differentiate themselves on the percentage of second serve points that they win. Nadal, Federer and Djokovic are incredible in this respect so Murray will need to match them to win the title.

Murray has amazing hands and feel and this is key on grass as matches tend to be less about battles from the baseline and more about drop shots, volleying, lobs and sliced approach shots - Murray has all the shots in the book so if he can use them at the right time he can beat anyone. His match last week against Roddick was almost embarrassingly easy and although Roddick is past his best, he is still a force to be reckoned with on grass.

Putting Murray aside, the next 2 weeks is a tennis traders paradise so our tips for trading Wimbledon successfully are:

1. Look at service stats on players - both first and second serve stats - these are key as grass is the quickest surface so serve is a massive advantage. If a player always holds serve then they will win the vast majority of matches. Incorporate this in your trading strategy, if you know a player holds serve on grass 90% of the time, then back him/her on serve and green up when they hold

2. Look for a player's record on grass as it suits some players games better than others - some excellent hard courters and clay courters struggle to adapt - Ivan Ljubicic is an excellent example, a former no 1 in the World and consistently in the Top 20 yet he has never made it beyond the last 32 at Wimbledon.

3. Look for a players form in the major Championships - certain players perform better on the big stage and others perform worse. Caroline Wozniacki is a perfect example, she is the no 1 ranked female player in the World and picks up ATP titles for fun yet she's never won a Grand Slam event.

4. Make sure you select the right matches - trade matches that ideally you can watch on TV as these will have the best liquidity and you can actually see how the match is going. Also, select matches where you can clearly predict who the winner will be but where the odds on the favourite are not so low that there is no value.

5. Never be afraid to change your mind, if you predict that player A is going to win a match but he is struggling in the first few games, do not have any loyalty to that player, trade the match as you see it.

6. Momentum is key - all these players are brilliant and the difference between the no 1 in the world and no 50 is tiny but momentum in Sport is massive as the player with momentum will be playing with confidence. Make sure you are always on the player with the momentum.

Finally, have fun and don't over trade.

Good Luck  

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